Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Cyprus Turmoil

The week of 3/18 - 3/22 started off slow but finished with near all-time stock closing price highs as well as a potential banking crisis looming.  Oracle (ORCL) shares dropped over 10% following their forecast of declining revenues to come.  This forecast is coming from their Q3 revenues that were just released and showed a decline.  S&P 500 (SPX) reached an almost all-time closing high at $1,565 but gains were halted due to the uncertainty with the situation in Cyprus.  FedEx (FDX) shares fell this week despite a 4% increase in market shipping volume.  FedEx relies heavily on their air trade while increasing fuel costs have caused consumers to find other methods such as trucks and ships.  Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) re-elected their board of governors despite some calling for new members.  The board announced 10% in dividends paid going forward, which could cost as much as 100,000 per year.  Dell (DELL) stocks jumped Monday morning, 3/25, following 2 buyout offers over the weekend.  The Blackstone group offered around $13.65 while Carl Icahn offered $15; stocks gained 2.6% following this news.  The following graph is the returns for the past week for the stocks we have analyzed plotted on the returns of S&P 500, not show in the key:
BlackBerry’s (BBRY) stock took a fall at the end of last week in response to the “disappointing” launch of the new Z10, BlackBerry’s competitor with the well-known iPhone (Apple: AAPL) and Galaxy (Samsung).  The lack of enthusiasm among AT&T and Best Buy sales personnel drove stock prices down nearly 8% on Friday.  Analysts at UBS that made their way to multiple store locations noticed a trending theme of limited interest in the device, ample stock, and minimal shelf space.  MarketWatch.com lowered the Z10’s success rate to 20%, down from thirty.  Goldman Sachs lowered BlackBerry to a neutral rating but urge that BlackBerry should remain on watch since the device is going through a staggered launch that will end by next week; Verizon is launching the Z10 on Friday. BlackBerry will also be releasing their 4th quarter results on Thursday, so BlackBerry should stay on the radar through next week.  
This past week ended with a lot of uncertainty as to what would happen with Cyprus and their banking crisis.  This small economy is suffering a banking crisis due to Greece defaulting on their debt and since Cyprus banks were heavily invested in this, their losses caused a lack of capital.  Currently the Cypriot banks are being kept afloat by the European Central Bank, but the European Union is pushing for Cyprus to come up with €6 billion in funds to match €10 billion provided by the IMF.  Cypriot banks were initially unsure of how to fund this and came up with a plan of a broad tax on all deposits under €100,000 of 6.6%.  Public outrage to this plan has provided a situation capable to producing a run on their banks.  Loss of confidence in the banks, as well as the potential tax on their deposits causes individuals to want to withdraw their funds from their accounts.  Cyprus’ government imposed a banking holiday to stop individuals from causing a run on banks; this holiday is set to last until Thursday.  If the ECB had withdrawn its support, Cypriot banks would collapse and the 17 member Eurozone would’ve moved into uncharted waters; Cyprus has been using the Euro for 5 years now.  If smaller countries like Greece and Spain were to abandon the Euro, surrounding countries could face bank runs on their deposits and the Eurozone would dissolve.
Early Monday morning, Cyprus and the EU agreed to a bailout deal with promises to aggressively cut back its oversized banking sector.  Cyprus must now raise nearly €6 billion and will do so by forcing losses on large deposits over €100,000.  Cyprus must also shrink its banking sector, which includes restructuring Laiki and supporting the Bank of Cyprus.
Russians use and have been using Cyprus as a major financial center, due to a number of treaties and lower costs.  The island is also used as a jurisdiction for new Russian businesses.  The Cypriot relationship with Russia has lead to large Russian deposits in Cypriot banks.  Russian depositors should now strongly consider withdrawing funds with the new agreement in place.  

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