Tuesday, March 11, 2014

China Concerns and Ukraine Crisis Update

Samantha Salant and Rachel Sullivan

Recently, the market has been pretty stable and underwent a week of gains. A bigger-than-expected rise in February nonfarm payrolls extended the weekly winning streak. The U.S. economy generated 175,000 jobs in February, and analysts say that although we are not seeing a boom quite yet, the underlying trend in the labor market is fairly good. This raised the unemployment rate, because analysts say that usually, people thinking that more jobs are available leads to more people searching for them. This lead to U.S. equities ending mostly higher. On Friday, March 7th, the S&P 500 reached record territory.
However, on Monday, March 10, 2014, the U.S. stock market opened significantly lower as caution prevailed following a surprise drop in Chinese exports on Friday. A very much-delayed report from China was released that showed its exports unexpectedly skidded 18.1% in February 2013, which has been over a year ago. Economists had expected an increase of 5%, so this news was extreme and the opposite of what was expected. This swung China’s trade balance into a deficit and added to fears of a worldwide economic slowdown, since China has the world’s second-largest economy. China’s CSI300 index slid to its lowest in nearly nine months, and Hong Kong’s Hang Sen Index shed 1.8%. Back home, U.S. stock futures fell 0.4% on Monday from their record closing high on Friday. Fortunately, the caution prevailed in the US was more intense than reality. Stocks recovered most of their losses but still finished Monday generally lower, with S&P 500 ending the day less than a point lower, DJIA closing 0.2% lower, and Nasdaq closing down 1.77 points. Furthermore, this unexpected news caused a decrease in copper prices because China was the largest importer of copper. The now lower demand for copper lead to a price decline of that commodity.
Tensions and elevated violence in Ukraine have led to lower stock prices in world markets, higher energy prices, slower growth of European economies, higher gold prices, and lower US Treasury yields. Short-term traders in gold have been hurt since expectations were not met; both spot and futures increased. European markets fell because of geopolitical uncertainty and reliance on Russian resources for energy. The price floor for crude oil has risen, as well as volatility among most commodities. Russia’s markets, which have been poor over the past few months, decreased abruptly following the outbreak of violence in Ukraine, and the ruble’s devaluation continued to the point that interest rates were raised 1.5%. Pending sanctions on Russia will have a negative impact to be seen in the near future; however the entire market situation is unpredictable. Asian, Russian, European, and US markets have all seen considerable downturns in the past week.
In addition to Chinese data releases and the Ukraine conflict, other current events have had smaller market impacts. The missing Malaysian flight has had a negative impact on Boeing stock and thus a negative impact on international stock markets. This blow, in conjunction with the aforementioned factors, has be mediated by various mergers among industries, such as the banana merger between Chiquita and Irish company Fyffes.

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