In a move that may rattle and shake energy stocks, a head honcho at Korea Gas Corporation signaled limits on future US imports. Despite South Korea’s voluptuous appetite for natural gas, the senior executive called for the US share of liquified natural gas (LNG) imports to be capped at twenty percent. With Korean eyes fixed on emerging Canadian, Australian, Russian, and East African liquefaction projects, there is reluctance to have, “too much exposure to shale-gas LNG [from the US].”
But which companies stand to lose from Eastern quotas?
Cheniere Energy Inc., the up-and-coming shale export powerhouse, may take a hit. To be clear, Korea Gas’s contract to purchase 3.5 million tons of LNG per annum from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass venture is not in doubt. There is, after all, a twenty year sale and purchase agreement between Cheniere and “Kogas” that guarantees continued production out of Sabine Pass.
The real problem lies with Cheniere’s more infant projects.
A new Corpus Christi location holds promise for Cheniere as a major LNG terminal hub. If granted approval by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), , Corpus Christi Liquefaction, LLC will have the potential to export 13.5 million tons of shale gas a year overseas by 2017. Yet, the federal approval process is a major hassle. A recent Oxford University study notes that detailed review and assessment of “all the potential LNG hazards,” as well as “emergency response plans” and “scheduled plant performance” are needed for FERC approval.
But even this is not enough for aspiring exporters; additional Department of Energy clearance is needed before a product is ready for shipping. And this process only allows a shale-production company to export to countries that have signed free trade agreements with the US! Given South Korea’s status as the US’s only FTA partner that imports a significant quantity of natural gas, Kogas’s recent position spells trouble. As for domestic competition, Cheniere executives and shareholder alike closely follow FERC rulings on seven other natural gas export projects. In the shale footrace, Sempra threatens to steal the lead. Their affiliate, Cameron LNG, is in the midst of a $6 billion proposed venture to export to FTA and non-FTA countries alike by 2016. Given Sempra’s existing binding agreements with non-FTA countries Japan and France (through Mitsubishi and GDF Suez respectively), Cheniere likely feels pressure to expand their market.
Despite considerable uncertainty and long-run problems, Cheniere Energy Inc. remains a solid stock. In just six months, stock value appreciated from $31 to $54 per share. The yearly trend is even more encouraging, with a 107% valuation. At the end of 2013, the company reported $329.0 million in yearly operating losses. Yet this is seen by investors as an encouraging sign; necessary investments in regasification facilities and personnel are being made.
As a shale producer with large export potential, our featured company is a bright star in an economic constellation poised for meteoric growth. Should governments recognize that limits of production and trade serve none and hurt many, energy portfolios will be a focal point in a resurgent economy.
As for the broader stock market, its been a rocky week-and-a-half (from March 17th to the present). The DJI creeped up .18%, but this masks significant fluctuations due to international unease. March 18th saw a .55% gain, due to encouraging February manufacturing data from the government and reduced fears of Crimea annexation. However, the DJI took a .33% hit in the March 20th-24th period, owing to greater unease over the Crimea situation. There was also a decline in biotechnology stocks, reflecting a correction to earlier investor optimum. If we look at the NASDAQ biotech composite (NBI), we see a 7.3% decline in share price. The broader NASDAQ composite (IXIC) follows an up-down trend similar to the DJI, but ended down 1.3% for the March 17th-24th period.
Sources:
<http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303725404579458573832497930?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%253A%252F%252Fonline.wsj.com%252Farticle%252FSB10001424052702303725404579458573832497930.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009>
<http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/05/29/cheniere-going-ahead-with-more-lng-plants-at-sabine-pass/>
<http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cheniere-and-kogas-sign-20-year-lng-sale-and-purchase-agreement-138317064.html>
<http://www.cheniere.com/corpus_christi/corpus_project.shtml>
<http://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NG-68.pdf>
<http://www.oilandgastechnology.net/downstream-news/us-shale-gas-revolution-trickles-down-brics-%25E2%2580%2593-doe>
<http://www.hamiltonproject.org/files/downloads_and_links/06_exports_levi.pdf>
<http://www.marketwatch.com/story/going-gold-in-the-cloud-saasplaza-named-a-gold-hosting-partner-for-microsoft-2013-02-21>
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